Saturday, November 26, 2005

Disturbing Bio of Cheney

Sidney Blumenthal tracks the Vice President's Machiavellian rise through Washington's power network. Same cast of characters and the same methods dating back to Nixon. Here's a good example of the way he works:
But in 2000, Cheney surfaced in the role of party elder, above the fray,willing to serve as the man who would help Gov. George W. Bush determine who should be his running mate. Prospective candidates turned over to him all sensitive material about themselves, financial, political and personal. Once he had collected it, he decided that he should be the vice presidential candidate himself. Bush said he had previously thought of the idea and happily accepted. Asked who vetted Cheney's records, Bush's then aide Karen Hughes explained, "Just as with other candidates, Secretary Cheney is the one who handled that."

Bush in Reverse

The LATimes reports the following:
President Bush plans what is being billed as a major speech on Iraq for Wednesday amid signs that the administration is changing course.

Aides told the Los Angeles Times that the president is expected to say at the Naval Academy in Annapolis that Iraqi troops are close to being able to operate on their own.

Has there been a dramatic increase in the effectiveness of the Iraqi troops or is the administration tailoring their assessment because of domestic political realities? The news from Iraq suggests the latter.

British Press Gag Causing Reflex

At issue is a classified memo detailing a purported conversation between Blair and Bush in which the latter suggests bombing Al-Jazeera's station in Qatar. The Attorney General issued a warning to the British press that publication would violate the Official Secrets Act.

British MP Boris Johnson pledges to publish the memo if it's given to him. $Q:
The Attorney General's ban is ridiculous, untenable, and redolent of guilt. I do not like people to break the Official Secrets Act ... we now have allegations of such severity, against the US President and his motives, that we need to clear them up.

If someone passes me the document within the next few days I will be very happy to publish it in The Spectator, and risk a jail sentence. .. Sunlight is the best disinfectant. If we suppress the truth, we forget what we are fighting for

British AG Denies Press Gag

The Guardian has the story. Lord Goldsmith claims he was giving "advice" to the papers with his recent threatening letter. Experts contend the attorney general is on weak ground to begin with. $Q:
A QC specialising in media law said: "If the material has already been published it's pretty hard to see how the subsequent publication of the same material will either amount to a disclosure - because how can you disclose something that's already been circulated? - or satisfy the test that the publication is damaging."

View from Iraq

Riveting reading from Baghdad Burning. Sample:
In the last three weeks, at least six different prominent doctors/professors have been assassinated. Some of them were Shia and some of them were Sunni- some were former Ba’athists and others weren’t. The only thing they have in common is the fact that each of them played a prominent role in Iraqi universities prior to the war: Dr. Haykal Al-Musawi, Dr. Ra'ad Al-Mawla (biologist), Dr. Sa'ad Al-Ansari, Dr. Mustafa Al-Heeti (pediatrician), Dr. Amir Al-Khazraji, and Dr.Mohammed Al-Jaza'eri (surgeon).

Harris Poll

Do you think that the Bush administration generally provides accurate information regarding current issues or do you think they generally mislead the public on current issues to achieve its own end?

Generally accurate 32%

Generally misleading 64%

Not sure 4%

Source: Harris Interactive
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,011 American adults, conducted from Nov. 8 to Nov. 13, 2005. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

Friday, November 25, 2005

Kinsley and Coulter


Michael Kinsley's literary laryngitis is cured—his voice has returned in full force with a brilliant thrashing of the administration's reaction to criticism. There should be a Nobel Simile Prize awarded for his description of Cheney returning to the theme of his recent speech:

"Then he resumed hurling adjectives like an ape hurling coconuts at unwanted visitors."

But there's much more than humor in the piece. His logic is airtight as he exposes the flimsy foundations of the "War Against Critics" (known in some quarters as the "War Against Fair Questions").

Compare and contrast to Ann Coulter, who's fond of the premise that any criticism of the administration (except hers) is treason; from there she sinks lower and lower until she's trapped in a tar pit of incoherent ad hominem.

Kinsley's voice is every bit as refreshing as Coulter's is adolescent. Both are must reads to see where the reason and the rhyme reside in the explosive debate over Iraq.

Alito was "perfect right-wing puppet"

From the Times Union:
Applying for a political job in the Reagan administration in 1985, Samuel Alito was eager to please by portraying himself as the perfect right-wing puppet.
Marianne Means believes Alito's "I was a young man " defense is porous and knocks it down point by point in a sharp editorial.

More Cronyism Allegations

The Sentinel & Enterprise rebukes the administration for the nomination of Ellen Sauerbrey to lead the U.S. State Department Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration. The editorial focuses on her strong political connections and weak resume for the job at hand. $Q:
In citing her qualifications to head the Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration, Sauerbrey told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that she has a big heart: "I think most important you need to have the compassion and caring for helping to protect vulnerable people."

McGovern: Bush 41 Against Iraq War

Crooks and Liars, as always, has the audio. McGovern says Scowcroft, Baker and Bush Sr. were all of the opinion the invasion was a mistake.

Buchanan Gets it Right

In A Plague on Both Their Houses Patrick Buchanan realistically assesses the few options left on the table. He closes by blasting both parties. $Q:
As for the ugliness and acrimony of Washington, it reflects the rage, resentment and shame of men who know they made a horrible mistake, thousands have suffered and died for it, and worse may be yet to come. The truth is both parties failed America. What the Greatest Generation won, the baby boomers are frittering away.

Thursday, November 24, 2005

Conrad Black Roughs Up Fitzgerald


From CP. Disgraced media baron Conrad Black lashed out at Patrick Fitzgerald at a conservative book launch in Canada today. $Q:

I accept that he's a competent prosecutor, but he doesn't know anything about this case. He just swoops in for the press conference and fluffs his lines.

Black, as previously noted, is facing forty years on an eight count indictment—his arraignment has been rescheduled for Nov. 30 (his associate David Radler has already agreed to a 29 month jail sentence under terms that have him testifying against Black).

Black also said the investigation has been "one massive smear job from A to Z, and it will have a surprise ending." The battle that's shaping up should give the public a tantalizing preview of how the Special Prosecutor closes on a high-profile target.

If Patrick Fitzgerald falters it will give welcome ammunition to defenders of the administration who paint him as a stickler who loses his sense of perspective in the obsessive pursuit of detail.

If he hangs tough it will bolster his growing reputation as a latter-day Eliot Ness.

I. Lewis Libby and the rest of the administration should and likely will be paying close attention.

50000+ Troops to be Withdrawn by '06

The Independent reports the Pentagon is planning to withdraw up to a third of its troops by the end of next year. The administration is walking a tight political line: they want to move slowly enough to avoid the flip-flop tag and rapidly enough to limit the damage from the electorate's growing sentiment against the war.

Daniel Ellsberg Arrested in Crawford Protest


(see USATODAY for more on the Crawford arrests)

Ellsberg is in many ways the archetype of whistleblowers like Richard Clarke. As an analyst at the RAND Corporation he had access to classified information on the Vietnam War. What he saw disturbed him so much—the administration's early knowledge that victory was unlikely; alarming casualty forecasts; apparent disdain for the public—he decided to leak the so-called Pentagon Papers to the New York Times.

Nixon was furious:
To the ordinary guy, all this is a bunch of gobbledygook. But out of the gobbledygook comes a very clear thing: you can't trust the government; you can't believe what they say; and you can't rely on their judgment. And the implicit infallibility of presidents, which has been an accepted thing in America, is badly hurt by this, because it shows that people do things the president wants to do even though it's wrong, and the president can be wrong.

(source: Nixon Oval Office tape, June 14, 1971)
Like President Bush (and indeed all presidents) Nixon relied heavily on the mythology of the Oval Office to govern. In his mind it had been shattered; the administration came at the Times and Daniel Ellsburg on a number of fronts.

The most famous effort was G. Gordon Liddy and E. Howard Hunt's break-in at the offices of Ellsberg's psychiatrist. The goal was to find documents that could be used to discredit the man, not his argument—a method currently favored by many throughout the political spectrum.

The context in which all this played out is eerily similar to the situation today. Daniel Ellsberg is a powerful symbol of what can happen when there's a breach of faith between an administration and the people it governs. Hopefully his arrest won't go unnoticed by the mainstream editorials— it's a powerful opportunity to learn from the past.

Brits Clamp Down Too Late

The story of the President's purported suggestion to bomb an Arab television station and the subsequent squelching of the press by the British has been out there since Tuesday. Raw Story has the latest. Tucked away at the bottom is this:
According to the Guardian, in reaction to the article in the Mirror, the International Federation of Journalists is demanding complete disclosure with regard to the death of 16 journalists and media staff, including al-Jazeera cameraman Tarek Ayoub, who was killed when the station's Baghdad office was hit during a US air strike in April of 2003.

The British government has no First Amendment to worry about and an Official Secrets Act at its disposal (imagine Cheney with that kind of leverage). Problem is, now that the horse has left the barn the attempts to kill the story are fueling even more questions.

Wednesday, November 23, 2005

Big Oil Poised to Grab $194B from Iraq

From a new report by Platform, an NGO with extensive experience in the field. $Q:
At an oil price of $40 per barrel, Iraq stands to lose between $74 billion and $194 billion over the lifetime of the proposed contracts (2), from only the first 12 oilfields to be developed. These estimates, based on conservative assumptions, represent between two and seven times the current Iraqi government budget.

Under the likely terms of the contracts, oil company rates of return from investing in Iraq would range from 42% to 162%, far in excess of usual industry minimum target of around 12% return on investment.
The upshot of the paper: the nascent Iraqi institutions aren't hardened enough to deal with the powerful oil multi-nationals on a fair basis. Revenue that is sorely needed in Iraq is in serious danger of being dealt away. From the intro:
This report reveals how an oil policy with origins in the US State Department is on course to be adopted in Iraq, soon after the December elections, with no public debate and at enormous potential cost. The policy allocates the majority (1) of Iraq’s oilfields – accounting for at least 64% of the country’s oil reserves – for development by multinational oil companies.

Iraqi public opinion is strongly opposed to handing control over oil development to foreign companies. But with the active involvement of the US and British governments a group of powerful Iraqi politicians and technocrats is pushing for a system of long term contracts with foreign oil companies which will be beyond the reach of Iraqi courts, public scrutiny or democratic control.

Bush Embarrasses Blair

Evening Standard to report Bush put the kibosh on arms waiver for the British. $Q:
"TONY BLAIR faced fresh embarrassment over his staunch support for George Bush today after the US dealt a huge blow to Britain's defence industry. Despite the Prime Minister's loyal backing of the American President over Iraq, Britain has lost a five-year battle to win exemptions from Washington's strict controls on arms imports."

Blair critics attack:
"This development demonstrates the complete failure of the Prime Minister to secure even the most modest concession from the United States and reinforces the view of so many who believe that he simply does the bidding of the United States without seeking any quid pro quo."

Developing...

Vietnamization of Iraq

An op-ed in Wednesday's Washington Times—traditionally a Bush-friendly paper—heavily criticizes the administration's recent handling of the Iraq issue. $Q:
The consuming issue has become the war in Iraq and the strategy for ensuring a successful outcome. The major complaint from both sides of the aisle is the administration's failure or reluctance to state an explicit strategy and present to the public relatively frequent and objective situation reports of where things are going well, where they are not, and how deficiencies and mistakes are being corrected.

Civil War Rumblings II

More disturbing news coming hard on the heels of reports of targeted assassinations of Baathists. Reuters has a story about an elderly Sunni leader shot dead in his bed by gunmen wearing Iraqi army uniforms. The man's sons were also killed. $Q:
Thair Kathim Sirheed said soldiers had killed his father and three brothers, two of whom had worked as policemen. "I am going to get rid of my police badge. From now on I will be a terrorist," said Sirheed.

Fitzgerald's Other Investigation: Update


Bloomberg reports Conrad Black failed to appear at his arraignment in Chicago today. Fitzgerald issued a warrant for his arrest last week and indicated he would seek extradition if Black didn't show. The former newspaper baron faces forty years on an eight count indictment.

Fitzgerald watchers are keen to see the taciturn proscecutor in action in the hopes of picking up clues to his MO. Heightening the interest is the fact that the cast of characters at Hollinger has ties to figures in the Plamegate investigation—one notable example is Richard Perle, former chairman of the Defense Policy Board at the Pentagon.

Condi's Pressure

The New York Observer reports the Times was pressured by Rice during the period Miller was writing the articles that spread WHIG misinformation.

Admin Planning Withdrawal

WaPo reports, contrary to the President's rhetoric, that the Pentagon is planning a drawdown. Very similar to a timetable, except the administration pronounciation is "a series of decision points".

O'Reilly Pushes Timetable


Another encouraging sign. Editor&Publisher reports Bill O'Reilly has called for a timetable on Iraq. He's usually a couple of months behind mainstream sentiment (some might remember his late concession that there were no WMD). The rest of his brethren won't be far behind.

The Tipping Point

The comparisons between Walter Cronkite and John Murtha are both obvious and relevant. Cronkite was originally hawkish on the Vietnam War, but a first hand look after the Tet offensive gave him a new perspective. As Daniel Hallin wrote:
Cronkite's change of views certainly dramatized the collapse of consensus on the war. But it did not create that collapse, and there were enough strong factors pushing toward a change in policy that it is hard to know how much impact Cronkite had. By the fall of 1967, polls were already showing a majority of Americans expressing the opinion that it had been a "mistake" to get involved in Vietnam

Somewhere along the line a tipping point had passed, virtually unnoticed, until Cronkite galvanized the sentiment with his famous broadcast.

Enter Murtha. Traditionally hawkish, he's a powerful symbol of the collapse of consensus on Iraq. August began with Cindy Sheehan's vigil in Crawford; the country has since seen the grim 2000 KIA milestone shattered and the majority turn against the administration's Iraq policy. Patrick Buchanan, the ultimate conservative contrarian who has been so right so many times since the war began, captures it perfectly once again:
With 57 percent of the nation no longer believing Bush an honest and truthful man, and 60 percent believing Iraq was a mistake and we should start bringing the troops home, it is impossible to see how the president can sustain the war effort. The Senate Democrats have gone over the hill, and the Republicans only await the bugle call to retreat.

History sides with Buchanan, not the President. Alexander Hamilton once commented on the British Prime Minister fighting to save his occupation from the uprising of the American colonies:
The premier has advanced too far to recede with safety; he is deeply interested to execute his purpose, if possible - in common life, to retract an error even in the beginning is not an easy task. Perseverance confirms us in it and rivets the difficulty - to this we may add that disappointment and opposition inflame the minds of men and attach them still more to their mistakes.

Recent speeches from the President have shown a dearth of new ideas on Iraq—nothing but inane repetition of what has been said all along, of what has brought the country here in the first place. Note that same message is louder and the tenor more forceful as he becomes attached still more to his mistakes.

Rep. Murtha's plan stands in stark contrast. He's taken a creative approach to solving an almost intractable problem—the withdrawal to the periphery encourages the Iraqis to fight independently while American forces are positioned for support and re-engagement if circumstances dictate.

In the past the White House has had great success attacking decorated veterans who have had the temerity to disagree with them. They clearly thought this time would be no different and they were clearly wrong. They were wrong because the nation is now hungry for an alternative to staying the dreadful course. The White House didn't realize the tipping point has quietly come and gone, a point crystallized in the person of John Murtha.

Tuesday, November 22, 2005

McCain on Board for Phase II Interviews

From The Hill. A big win for Democrats and those Republicans who want the truth behind the pre-war statements to come out. A blow for Cheney and the administration.

White House Changes Strategy on Murtha

In a move reminiscent of the Miers withdrawal, the administration has abruptly shifted strategy on the Murtha issue. As the Connecticut Post memorably puts it they have "cut and run" from attacks on Rep. Murtha.

It's one more sign of a government with a tin-ear for the sensibilities of the electorate. The President's team appears to be wrapped up in the comfort of their own platitudes; they're too out of touch to realize how politically damaging these first instincts are until they drop like an anvil in the court of public opinion.

Toobin: Woodward News Bad for White House


There's a school of thought that says the Woodward revelation is potentially exculpatory for Scooter Libby and the remaining administration figures (an opinion expressed previously on these pages). Jeffrey Toobin disagrees. His argument is strong—any development that prompts Fitzgerald to dig deeper raises the danger level.

Admin Hiding Smoking PDB

Murray Waas of the National Journal has the story. $Q:
Ten days after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, President Bush was told in a highly classified briefing that the U.S. intelligence community had no evidence linking the Iraqi regime of Saddam Hussein to the attacks and that there was scant credible evidence that Iraq had any significant collaborative ties with Al Qaeda, according to government records and current and former officials with firsthand knowledge of the matter.

There's much more—all extremely damaging to the "everyone saw the same intel as us" defense currently in vogue with the administration.

Monday, November 21, 2005

Bob Woodward on Larry King


Just finished watching. Can already see a lot of piling on out there, but don't have the heart to join in. It's depressing to see him reduced to waving around old WaPos to prove he's not a shill for the administration.

Yes on Your Watch

Bloomberg reports Iraqi leaders have urged that a timetable be set for the withdrawal of coalition troops. $Q:
In a final statement, read by Arab League chief Amre Moussa, host of the three-day summit, they called for the withdrawal of foreign troops according to a timetable, through putting in place an immediate national program to rebuild the armed forces.

A delicate situation for the President. It flies in the face of everything he's been saying, but if he ignores the request it's a tacit acknowledgement the coalition forces are occupiers.

But there's something even more worrisome buried at the bottom of the article:
The final statement also stated that "resistance is a legitimate right for all people." The conference almost collapsed earlier today when Sunni leaders objected to the definition of "resistance," al-Jazeera said.

"Terrorism is not legitimate resistance and thus we condemn terrorism and the acts of violence, killings and kidnappings that target Iraqi citizens; civil, governmental and humanitarian organizations; national wealth and houses of worships," the leaders said in the statement.

Note the glaring absence of the coalition forces in the laundry list of caveats.

Cheney Speaks

From remarks at the American Enterprise Institute on Iraq and the War on Terrorism:
What is not legitimate and what I will again say is dishonest and reprehensible is the suggestion by some U.S. senators that the president of the United States or any member of his administration purposely misled the American people on prewar intelligence.

It's an entirely legitimate question. Cheney has developed a habit of giving lawmakers the Heisman when they come looking for information. See here , here and here for example. What he is saying, in effect, is trust me. His record says otherwise. See here for the fifty odd misleading charges Cheney made about the Iraq threat between March 17, 2002, and January 22, 2004 (it also covers the rest of the administration's public statements).

By all accounts there was no lack of qualification swirling around the intel at the CIA. Sins of omission are a powerful tool when dishonest hands are shaping the argument—his approval ratings suggest this is hardly a secret to the electorate. Cheney's complaint is every bit as hollow and misguided as the record reveals the man to be.

Phosphorus Fiasco

The New York Times reports more PR bungling by an administration that used to be famous for staying on message. At issue is an Italian documentary alleging the use of white phosphorus in Fallujah. There is plenty that can be refuted, but sketchy damage control has given the story sturdier legs. Cut to the bottom line—$Q:

In the face of such evidence, the Bush administration made an embarrassing public reversal last week. Pentagon spokesmen admitted that white phosphorus had been used directly against Iraqi insurgents. "It's perfectly legitimate to use this stuff against enemy combatants," Colonel Venable said Friday.

While he said he could not rule out that white phosphorus hit some civilians, "U.S. and coalition forces took extraordinary measures to prevent civilian casualties in Falluja."


Should have said so in the first place.

U of T Paper: Resign Dick

From the Daily Texan. Is this the voice of the young generation? Joshua Huck delivers a blistering article guaranteed to send the nation's dwindling stock of Cheney-philes crashing through the exits. Particularily good on the torture issue. $Q:

Sunday, November 20, 2005

Civil War Rumblings

In what could be an ominous development, Deutsche Presse-Agentur reports Baathists are being targeted for assassination.
The incidents took place as Iraqi officials made statements indicating that Baath Party loyalists would not be welcome in the reconciliatory dialogue that they were meeting at the Arab League to prepare for.

President Jalal Talabani and Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari both made comments to that effect Saturday at the opening of the preparatory meeting.

Talabani is Kurdish and Jaafari is a Shite—no Sunni voice is mentioned. Until now the feared civil war has been held back by the extraordinary restraint of the Shiite majority. If the assassinations are in fact an amplification of official positions it's a sign that restraint is now unraveling.

Rumsfeld Points Finger at CIA, UN

From this Sunday's Late Edition on CNN:

BLITZER: Here is the question that a lot of people want you to answer. Do you as the defense secretary owe the American people an apology for all that bad intelligence?
RUMSFELD: Why would the Defense Department -- it's the intelligence community that made the intelligence. It was CIA and...
BLITZER: But the DIA had an intelligence operation. And you had a separate intelligence operation that Doug Feith, one of your top aides, was running.
RUMSFELD: It was not a separate intelligence organization. You've been reading the press too long.
BLITZER: What is the inspector general investigating now as far as Doug Feith and his intelligence operation?
RUMSFELD: I really don't know.

The buck stops where?
BLITZER: That's why the U.S. went to war: the WMD and the Iraq- Al Qaida connection that you alleged.
RUMSFELD: The reason the United States went to war, the president has announced and said it repeatedly. There were 17 resolutions in the U.N. that were ignored by Saddam Hussein. Our planes were being shot at on a regular basis in the Operation Southern Watch and Operation Northern Watch. Saddam Hussein was giving $25,000 to the families of suicide bombers. Iraq was on the terrorist list. Iraq had used chemical weapons against its own people and its neighbors.

Of course history shows the President went to war despite the United Nations, not because of it. Rumsfeld knows all about the chemical weapons charges because those were the days he could be seen shaking hands with Saddam. And as far as the planes being shot at it's an illustration of how impotent Iraq was before the invasion. Over 40,000 US sorties were flown in Iraq during the 90's. Number of planes Saddam shot down?

None.

Woodward's Source Still a Mystery

MSNBC reports Richard Armitage is garnering attention in what can only be called a "guilt through omission" process:
One by one last week, a parade of current and former senior officials, including the CIA's George Tenet and national-security adviser Stephen Hadley, denied being the source. A conspicuous exception was former deputy secretary of State Richard Armitage, whose office would only say, "We're not commenting."

If the former deputy secretary of State was the original leaker, it's good news for the administration. Novak has indicated the person who told him about Plame was not a "partisan gunslinger".

This description fits Armitage, and lends credence to the claims the whole matter was the result of careless gossip, not vindictiveness. Richard Armitage is hardly a man to hold the neo-con's water for them; it's quite possible Libby is breathing a little easier with the Woodward revelation.

Not On My Watch

In South Korea yesterday the President, resplendent in his de rigueur Biggles flight jacket, said the following concerning troop withdrawal:
"I'm going to make you this commitment: This is not going to happen on my watch."

Is this meant to be comforting?
  • 9/11 happened on his watch
  • over two thousand young Americans have died to rid Saddam of WMD that weren't there on his watch
  • American's have tortured, and the right to torture is being fought for on his watch
  • Iraq, in a grotesque self-fulfilling prophecy, has become a terrorist threat on his watch
  • OBL , the man who murdered thousands of innocent American civilians, is still at large on his watch

Truth be told, his watch has been a calamity for the nation. He'd do well to can the John Wayne rhetoric - it only reminds the public of his disastrous tenure thus far in the Oval Office.